BJP-SAD Alliance: Deal Almost Done

The BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) are close to reaching an agreement on reviving their alliance ahead of the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections. Most of the groundwork has been completed, with differences over a handful of assembly segments still to be sorted out, party sources said.

November 18 is emerging as a possible date for announcing the alliance, although the final decision will depend on a meeting between Union Home Minister Amit Shah and SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal.

The two leaders are expected to settle the remaining differences particularly over the distribution of seats. Sources in both parties said the announcement could be made any time after the meeting, depending on how quickly the outstanding issues are resolved.

Union Jal Shakti Minister and Punjab BJP election in-charge CR Patil is also expected to visit Chandigarh on November 17. He is likely to meet state leaders and discuss the seat-sharing arrangement as well as the party’s preparations for the elections. Patil is considered close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

There is also a growing sense of urgency within the BJP and SAD, as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has already announced 71 candidates for the 117-member Punjab Assembly. An early announcement would give the alliance partners more time to finalise their candidates and prepare for the campaign.

The biggest change in the proposed arrangement is the BJP’s demand for a much larger share of seats. The party is seeking at least 50 per cent of the constituencies, a sharp departure from the arrangement that existed before the alliance broke down in 2020 over the farm laws.

Under the previous seat sharing formula, the BJP contested 23 seats, while the SAD fielded candidates in the remaining 94 constituencies. This time, the BJP is unwilling to settle for similar arrangement and is pressing for a substantially bigger share.

The party believes its improved electoral performance in Punjab has strengthened its claim.
In the 2022 Assembly elections, the BJP secured around 6.6 per cent of the votes, while the SAD polled 18.38 per cent. The picture changed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP’s vote share rose to 18.56 per cent, despite failing to win any of the state’s 13 parliamentary seats. The SAD’s vote share fell to 13.42 per cent, although it managed to retain the Bathinda seat.

Together, the two parties polled around 31.98 per cent of the votes in 2024. However, whether their supporters will back a joint alliance remains a separate electoral challenge.

Alongside the alliance negotiations, the BJP has begun strengthening its grassroots organisation in Punjab. Party leaders have been asked to concentrate on around 11,900 polling booths as part of preparations for the 2027 elections.

Of these, the BJP had won around 6,000 booths in the 2022 Assembly elections. The party lost approximately 5,900 others by margins of just 100 votes, according to party sources.
The BJP believes that a focused campaign in these closely contested booths could help it improve its performance in the next election.

Arun Kumar, RSS joint general secretary in charge of the northern states, held a meeting with BJP leaders on Friday to discuss the party’s organisational preparations and electoral strategy.
Captain Amarinder Singh pushes for alliance

Former Punjab chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh has also been working towards bringing the two former allies together. He has repeatedly argued that the BJP and SAD need to contest the elections together if they want to challenge their political rivals effectively.Amarinder Singh met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi on Wednesday.

During the meeting, he is understood to have discussed Punjab’s political situation and the possibilities ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections. He also urged Modi to reconsider an alliance, maintaining that a united contest would put the parties in a stronger position.

The proposed meeting between Amit Shah and Sukhbir Badal is now expected to settle the remaining differences. Although November 18 is being discussed as the likely date for the announcement, leaders in both parties believe the formal declaration could come earlier or later, depending on the outcome of the meeting. For now, the focus is on how many seats the BJP will secure and whether the SAD is prepared to accept a significantly different arrangement from the one that existed before their split in 2020.