New Delhi, April 29
Exit polls released on Wednesday offered a fragmented yet broadly indicative picture of the electoral landscape across five states, pointing to a strong performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam, a closely fought contest in West Bengal, and likely victories for regional forces in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
While most projections suggested the BJP could retain Assam comfortably and gain an edge in West Bengal, they also indicated that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) may return to power in Tamil Nadu and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) could stage a comeback in Kerala. Puducherry, meanwhile, is expected to stay with the NDA.
Bengal battle too close to call
West Bengal emerged as the most contested arena, with pollsters sharply divided over the outcome. Several surveys gave the BJP a narrow lead over the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Yet, a few projections contradicted this trend, forecasting a decisive TMC victory. The wide variation in seat estimates underlined the unpredictability in the 294-member Assembly, where the halfway mark stands at 148.
Tamil Nadu: DMK ahead, but uncertainty lingers
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance appeared poised to retain power, with multiple exit polls placing it above the majority mark in the 234-member Assembly.
However, the emergence of Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) added an element of uncertainty. Some pollsters predicted a fractured mandate, suggesting the new entrant could play a spoiler in a contest traditionally dominated by the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
Assam: NDA set for comfortable return
In Assam, there was near consensus among pollsters that the BJP-led NDA would secure a clear majority. Most projections placed the alliance well beyond the halfway mark in the 126-member Assembly, reinforcing expectations of political continuity in the state.
Kerala: UDF tipped to unseat Left
Kerala’s electoral narrative pointed towards a possible shift in power, with exit polls indicating that the Congress-led UDF could return after a decade, dislodging the Left Democratic Front (LDF).
While the LDF was projected to remain competitive, most estimates placed it short of the majority mark in the 140-member House.
Puducherry: NDA likely to hold ground
In Puducherry, the NDA, led by the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC), is expected to retain power, with projections consistently placing it ahead of the Congress-DMK alliance.
Track record and caution
Despite the broad trends, exit polls have historically shown varying degrees of accuracy in India, often failing to capture late swings in voter sentiment. The divergent projections, especially in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, highlight the need for caution.
Counting on May 4
Polling across Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry was conducted in a single phase, while West Bengal voted in two phases.
The final verdict will emerge on May 4, when votes are counted across all five Assemblies, settling a contest that exit polls suggest is anything but uniform.
Exit polls predict BJP win in Assam, edge in Bengal
