New Delhi, May 21
India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could remain politically dominant for at least two decades, according to pollster Pradeep Gupta, who says the country may be entering another long cycle of single-party influence.Pradeep Gupta, chairman of Axis My India, suggested that the BJP’s position—established after its 2014 national victory—remains strong enough to sustain long-term electoral success, provided its governance performance does not significantly decline.
Speaking to PTI, Gupta drew comparisons with the Congress party’s decades-long dominance in post-Independence India, arguing that Indian politics often moves in generational cycles of around 20 years.
“There is a threshold in politics,” he said, noting that the Congress remained in power continuously until 1977 before entering a period of decline. “That 20-year cycle will remain even now,” he added, suggesting the BJP could continue as the central force in national politics.
He argued that the durability of both the ruling coalition and the opposition would depend largely on the effectiveness of the government in office.
“After receiving such a massive mandate, expectations from the BJP have also increased. So the BJP and the NDA will now have to super perform,” Gupta said.
He added that as long as governance remains strong, electoral setbacks for the ruling alliance are unlikely. “Till the time their performance does not become weak or poor, they will keep winning and the opposition will keep losing,” he said.
Gupta also pointed to structural challenges facing the Congress, including what he described as lingering perceptions of past misgovernance, which he said could delay its political recovery.
“Even if you talk about 2029, it would mean around 15 years out of power for Congress. I feel it may take at least five more years for them to convince the entire country,” he said.
However, he cautioned that prolonged dominance can also bring heightened public expectations and eventual political fatigue, noting that any party at the peak of power is eventually subject to decline.
